A Mexico World Cup No-Show Would Be an Economic No-No

Something terrible is happening in Mexico: The country’s national soccer team is nearing the abyss of elimination from next year’s World Cup in Brazil. A bit hyperbolic, I know. After all, Mexico is besieged by much greater ills. But in Mexico, the importance of soccer and its quadrennial celebration can’t be so easily dismissed, and failure to qualify for the World Cupwould reverberate off the field long after the fans’ wailing and jeering had stopped.

In a country used to dizzying inequality and increasing political polarization, the green jersey worn by the national futbol team serves as an uncommon unifying social force. Just as in other soccer-crazy countries, Mexicans come together when “El Tri” plays. The country’s domestic Primera Division is one of the continent’s top-grossing leagues, with teams whose appeal rivals that of many world powerhouses. During the last World Cup in South Africa, Mexico’s innovative black jersey outsold all others. According to Adidas AG (ADS), more than 1.2 million Mexican shirts were sold worldwide. More than 15,000 Mexicans traveled to South Africa to support their team (each paying at least $10,000 for the pleasure).

All this, mind you, in spite of the team’s enduring mediocrity: Mexico has failed to advance past the round of 16 in its last five World Cups. Apparently, Mexicans don’t care about the team’s obvious lack of excellence: We simply want to watch the team play every four years on the world’s biggest stage, even if the outcome is almost always defeat at the hands ofArgentina. That’s the nature of our peculiar passion.

High Stakes

Mexico has failed to qualify before. Back in 1973, while playing in the qualifying tournament inHaiti, Mexican players fell ill from local voodoo (I kid you not) and didn’t make it to Germany’s World Cup. They also had a lapse prior to the 1982 tournament. But things have changed since then. Now, Concacaf (the governing body for soccer in North and Central America and the Caribbean) organizes the region’s top six teams in a playoff group. After hosting each other in a six-month reciprocity affair, the top three teams earn a ticket to Brazil. The (sort of) lucky fourth-place finishers get to play New Zealand for another spot. Under the current format, Mexico has qualified with certain ease for the last five World Cups. Now, after losing to the U.S., the team sits — like a swollen, beat-up boxer — in fifth place. Only two matches are left.

Read More:  Bloomberg

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